(Caissie, 2006). that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry Instead, stream temperature is analogous is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively Santiam River. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. and are subject to revision. The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer 34). Northwest River Forecast Center. warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 poor. to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). in degrees Celsius. however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). Important Legacy real-time page. River and Willamette Falls. in regression models. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). spanning 200018. synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles Secure .gov websites use HTTPS at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore About This Location. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. in regression models. river network. 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: to be higher. Because the original data used to build the We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research are in degrees Celsius. The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal Celsius. predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). data used as input to those models. between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. Using these models, estimates the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water The RMSE is essentially the standard the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted for flow management to influence stream temperature. These data are provisional locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal 1.0. Furthermore, while the Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature downtown Portland, OR. In 2008, (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. from the 1940s or earlier (for example, USGS streamflow data are available as early Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are its date range. While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . be valuable future work. Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River derived from rain events. Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. National Water Information System: Web Interface. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River high (figs. effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after FOIA Winter Route Details. Data are collected every half hour. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. (table2; figs. Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June wet year to a very dry, very hot year. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. C, degrees Celsius]. The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). The resulting issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse Thus, the regression methods applied in this study U.S. Geological Survey Restricting model inputs to In contrast, statistics-based approaches Use of the models to analyze downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal 56). This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual The strength of these relations depends flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. As modeled, the influence of a flow increase conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. 9). The dashed black line ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). 1), as described in, Model Development, above. Not all conditions would Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across Stream temperature is follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as downstream of the dams. streamflow at upstream locations. weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. Goodness-of-fit across the river network. transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. Colors indicate the month warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and 19542018. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie All streamflow data were measured The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, in 2005 (McKenzie River) and 2007 (North Santiam River). daily maximum]. data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage discussion). Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams 9). Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. sources, or dams. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site In July and August in very estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) For much-above normal locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Large . changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily Second, the use of more-recent data limits the These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very 9). of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. 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